Legião vs GREVAL: prediction and stats
Brasiliense BRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Augustinho Pires de Lima, Sobradinho, Distrito Federal
The Footlab model makes GREVAL the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Legião. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legião vs GREVAL?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Legião (1,565) and GREVAL (1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legião have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; GREVAL have 5, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Real FC(away) | 1-2 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Sobradinho EC(away) | 0-2 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Ceilandense(home) | 1-1 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Ceilândia(home) | 1-2 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Capital Brasilia(away) | 0-1 | Brasiliense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | ARUC(home) | 0-5 | Brasiliense B |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Cruzeiro FC(away) | 2-1 | Brasiliense B |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Riacho City(home) | 2-3 | Brasiliense B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Planaltina DF(home) | 0-2 | Brasiliense B |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Candango(away) | 4-3 | Brasiliense B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Legião win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 GREVAL win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2024 | GREVAL 0-6 Legião | Brasiliense B |
How many goals should we expect?
Legião score 0.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; GREVAL score 1.1 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legião | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| GREVAL | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 4/14 | 10/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legião vs GREVAL?
- The Footlab model makes GREVAL the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Legião.
- Where and when is Legião vs GREVAL played?
- Legião vs GREVAL is played on September 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Augustinho Pires de Lima, in the Brasiliense B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.