Leicester vs Oxford United: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)King Power Stadium, Leicester, Leicestershire
The Footlab model makes Leicester the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Oxford United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leicester vs Oxford United?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Leicester (1,837) and Oxford United (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leicester have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Oxford United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Notts County(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Leicester win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Oxford United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Leicester 1-2 Oxford United | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Oxford United 2-2 Leicester | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Leicester vs Oxford United on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leicester score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leicester sit 18th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Oxford United sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Leicester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leicester vs Oxford United?
- The Footlab model makes Leicester the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Oxford United.
- Where and when is Leicester vs Oxford United played?
- Leicester vs Oxford United is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at King Power Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.