Leioa vs Real Sociedad III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad III. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 5,241 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
On Elo ratings, Leioa has 1,847 points and Real Sociedad III 1,788.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leioa vs Real Sociedad III
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Real Sociedad III
Not enough data to predict the Real Sociedad III lineup.
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 09:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Real Sociedad III have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Touring(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Erandio(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sodupe(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Leioa wins, 0 draws, 0 Real Sociedad III wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Leioa 2-1 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Real Sociedad III 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Leioa vs Real Sociedad III on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 2.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad III score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Sociedad III | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (22 points from 10 matches) and Real Sociedad III sit 3rd (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad III | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 18 |
A question about Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad III.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Real Sociedad III played?
- Leioa vs Real Sociedad III is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.