Eibar III vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab model makes Eibar III the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar III vs Derio?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Eibar III (1,705) and Derio (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar III have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Derio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Eibar III win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Derio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Derio 2-2 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Eibar III 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Eibar III 0-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Derio 0-2 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar III score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar III | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar III sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (36 points from 34 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 40 | 58 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44 | 53 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar III vs Derio?
- The Footlab model makes Eibar III the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Derio.
- Where and when is Eibar III vs Derio played?
- Eibar III vs Derio is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.