Eibar III vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Eibar III. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar III vs Derio?
Derio starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,624).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Eibar III vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Eibar III
Not enough data to predict the Eibar III lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar III have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Eibar III win, 3 draws, 0 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Derio 2-2 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Eibar III 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Eibar III 0-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Derio 0-2 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar III score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar III | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar III sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (5 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 16 | Eibar III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Eibar III vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar III vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Eibar III.
- Where and when is Eibar III vs Derio played?
- Eibar III vs Derio is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.