Leon vs Real Salt Lake: prediction and stats
Leagues CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Real Salt Lake. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leon vs Real Salt Lake?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Leon (1,895) and Real Salt Lake (1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Real Salt Lake have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 4-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Leon win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Real Salt Lake win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2023 | Leon 1-3 Real Salt Lake | Leagues Cup |
Last archived meeting: Leon vs Real Salt Lake on Aug 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Salt Lake score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 2.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leon vs Real Salt Lake?
- The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Real Salt Lake.
- Where and when is Leon vs Real Salt Lake played?
- Leon vs Real Salt Lake is played on August 26, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio León (Nou Camp), in the Leagues Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.