Monterrey vs Chicago Fire: prediction and stats
Leagues CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Chicago Fire. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterrey vs Chicago Fire?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Monterrey (1,940) and Chicago Fire (1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterrey have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Chicago Fire have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Chicago Fire score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Chicago Fire | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterrey vs Chicago Fire?
- The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Chicago Fire.
- Where and when is Monterrey vs Chicago Fire played?
- Monterrey vs Chicago Fire is played on August 26, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio BBVA, in the Leagues Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.