Toluca vs Austin: prediction and stats
Leagues CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Austin. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Austin?
Toluca is a heavy favourite: 2,062 Elo points against 1,729 — a 333-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Austin have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Austin score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Austin | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Austin?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Austin.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Austin played?
- Toluca vs Austin is played on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Leagues Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.