Leon vs Toluca: result 2-4 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 5, 2025 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
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What was the result of Leon vs Toluca?
Toluca won 2-4 on October 5, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 5′J. AnguloToluca
- 35′J. RodríguezLeon (pen.)
- 48′PaulinhoToluca
- 58′A. VegaToluca
- 69′J. AlvaradoLeon
- 76′PaulinhoToluca
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Toluca have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | FC Juarez(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Mazatlán(home) | 2-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Club Tijuana(away) | 0-5 | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Club Queretaro(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Campeones Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Mazatlán(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Monterrey(home) | 6-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Puebla(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leon win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Leon 3-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Toluca 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Leon 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Toluca 0-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Leon 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 2.4 and concede 1.2.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 0.8 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Toluca | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leon sit 14th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy