Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Atletico San Luis. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (2,062 vs 1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico San Luis have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-4 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Toluca win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Atletico San Luis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 1-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Toluca 2-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Atletico San Luis 1-5 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Toluca 3-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis on Apr 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico San Luis score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico San Luis | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Atletico San Luis sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Atletico San Luis.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Atletico San Luis played?
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.