Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC)Stadion Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 6% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Levski Sofia is a heavy favourite: 2,046 Elo points against 1,718 — a 328-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Levski Sofia have 11 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 17, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 2-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Levski Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Levski Sofia 2-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Levski Sofia 2-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Spartak Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Spartak Varna 2-2 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Jul 16, 2022 | Levski Sofia 5-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia on Dec 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Levski Sofia score 2.3 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 2.3 | 0.4 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Levski Sofia sit 4th in First League (12 points from 4 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Spartak Varna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 6% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna played?
- Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC) at Stadion Georgi Asparuhov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.