Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,795) and Spartak Varna (1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 28, 2023 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Aug 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th in First League (3 points from 6 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.