Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Arda Kardzhali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,805) and Arda Kardzhali (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Arda Kardzhali have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arda Kardzhali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 4-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| May 8, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | Cup |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 0-4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cup |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th in First League (3 points from 5 matches) and Arda Kardzhali sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Arda Kardzhali.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali is played on August 24, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.