Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 64%, against 24% for a draw and 12% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
Levski Sofia is a heavy favourite: 2,050 Elo points against 1,699 — a 351-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Levski Sofia have 11, 4 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 6-0 | First League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Septemvri Sofia win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Levski Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Levski Sofia 7-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-1 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Levski Sofia 2-3 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Levski Sofia 5-0 Septemvri Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Levski Sofia score 2.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Levski Sofia | 2.5 | 0.4 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 8th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Levski Sofia sit 2nd (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 64%, against 24% for a draw and 12% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.