Where and when is Monterey Bay vs Lexington played?

Monterey Bay vs Lexington is played on September 27, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Cardinale Stadium, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Monterey Bay vs Lexington: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 27, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, California

Monterey Bay

Lexington

The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Monterey Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Monterey Bay vs Lexington?

Lexington starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,764 vs 1,577).

Monterey Bay win22 %

Draw24 %

Lexington win53 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterey Bay have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Lexington have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Monterey Bay
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Rhode Island(away)	1-3	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Oakland Roots(away)	1-1	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2026	New Mexico United(home)	2-5	USL Championship
Aug 6, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Lexington(away)	2-3	USL Championship

Lexington
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Las Vegas Lights(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Phoenix Rising(home)	1-0	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Monterey Bay(home)	3-2	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	FC Tulsa(away)	0-0	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Monterey Bay win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lexington win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Lexington 3-2 Monterey Bay	USL Championship
May 8, 2026	Lexington 3-1 Monterey Bay	USL Championship
Jun 8, 2025	Monterey Bay 2-1 Lexington	USL Championship
Apr 19, 2025	Lexington 0-0 Monterey Bay	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Lexington vs Monterey Bay on Aug 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Monterey Bay score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Monterey Bay	1.4	1.7	3	10/15	8/15
Lexington	1.7	1.2	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Monterey Bay sit 12th in USL Championship (11 points from 13 matches) and Lexington sit 8th (15 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Lexington	20	9	4	7	30	23	31
8	Lexington	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
12	Monterey Bay	13	3	2	8	13	22	11
12	Monterey Bay	22	4	4	14	23	40	16

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Monterey Bay vs Lexington?: The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Monterey Bay.
Where and when is Monterey Bay vs Lexington played?: Monterey Bay vs Lexington is played on September 27, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Cardinale Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.