Lida vs Smorgon: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Start, Lida
The Footlab model makes Lida the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Smorgon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lida vs Smorgon?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Lida (1,492) and Smorgon (1,431).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lida have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Smorgon have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Niva(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Slutsk(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk II(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(away) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lida win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Smorgon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Smorgon 4-4 Lida | 1. Division |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Smorgon 2-3 Lida | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Smorgon 2-1 Lida | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Lida 1-3 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| May 7, 2022 | Smorgon 2-0 Lida | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2020 | Lida 0-0 Smorgon | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Lida score 2.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lida | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lida sit 3rd in 1. Division (39 points from 21 matches) and Smorgon sit 14th (23 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lida | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 34 | 39 |
| 5 | Lida | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 20 |
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lida vs Smorgon?
- The Footlab model makes Lida the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Smorgon.
- Where and when is Lida vs Smorgon played?
- Lida vs Smorgon is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Start, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.