Lincoln vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 40Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Lincoln the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lincoln vs Derby?
Lincoln starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,975 vs 1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lincoln have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Derby have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barnsley(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lincoln win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Lincoln | League Cup |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Lincoln 0-0 Derby | League One |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Derby 3-1 Lincoln | League One |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Derby 2-0 Lincoln | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Derby 1-1 Lincoln | League One |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Lincoln 2-0 Derby | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Lincoln score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lincoln sit 22nd in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Derby sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 | Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Lincoln the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Derby.
- Where and when is Lincoln vs Derby played?
- Lincoln vs Derby is played on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.