West Brom vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 7, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
The Footlab AI model makes West Brom the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If West Brom wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win West Brom vs Derby?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate West Brom (1,929) and Derby (1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for West Brom vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
West Brom
4-4-2- 20R. Nzingoula
- 19A. Heggebø
- 21I. Price
- 15Tobias Christopher Collyer
- 8J. Molumby
- 29Harry Whitwell
- 4C. Styles
- 2C. Mepham
- 18B. Pereira
- 6G. Campbell
- 1M. O’Leary
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, West Brom have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | QPR(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Derby(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 West Brom win, 2 draws, 3 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Derby 0-1 West Brom | Championship |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Derby 1-1 West Brom | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | West Brom 0-1 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2025 | West Brom 1-1 Derby | League Cup |
| Apr 21, 2025 | West Brom 1-3 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Derby 2-1 West Brom | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
West Brom score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
West Brom sit 4th in Championship (17 points from 10 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about West Brom vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for West Brom vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes West Brom the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Derby.
- Where and when is West Brom vs Derby played?
- West Brom vs Derby is played on April 7, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Hawthorns, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.