Linfield vs Larne: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Linfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Linfield vs Larne?
Larne starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Linfield have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Larne have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cliftonville FC(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Glentoran(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Dollingstown(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Linfield win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Larne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Linfield 0-2 Larne | Premiership |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Larne 1-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Linfield 0-0 Larne | Premiership |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Larne 0-0 Linfield | Premiership |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Larne 2-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Linfield 1-0 Larne | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Linfield score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Larne score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Larne | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Linfield sit 7th in Premiership (6 points from 3 matches) and Larne sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Linfield | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Linfield vs Larne?
- The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Linfield.
- Where and when is Linfield vs Larne played?
- Linfield vs Larne is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.