Linfield vs Larne: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab AI model makes Larne the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Linfield. The most likely score is 1-1. If Larne wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Linfield vs Larne?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Linfield (1,757) and Larne (1,828).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Linfield vs Larne
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Linfield
4-3-3- 8K. McClean
- 30Kobei Moore
- 16D. Wells
- 10A. Frizzell
- 26I. Baird
- 14K. Nelson
- 15B. Hall
- 27E. McGee
- 34Dane Neil McCullough
- 33D. Leahy
- 1C. Johns
Larne
4-3-3- 9P. O'Neill
- 30M. Lusty
- 45M. Gibson
- 6C. Gallagher
- 26D. Bent
- 15R. Doherty
- 4A. Donnelly
- 23T. Cosgrove
- 3M. Ridley
- 11S. Graham
- 1R. Ferguson
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Linfield have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Larne have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 3-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Crusaders FC(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Portadown(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 5-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Cliftonville FC(home) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portadown(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Linfield win, 3 draws, 2 Larne wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Linfield 0-2 Larne | Premiership |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Larne 1-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Linfield 0-0 Larne | Premiership |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Larne 0-0 Linfield | Premiership |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Larne 2-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Linfield 1-0 Larne | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Linfield score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Larne score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 1.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Larne | 1.4 | 1.2 | 8 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Linfield sit 2nd in Premiership (25 points from 10 matches) and Larne sit 3rd (19 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Linfield | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | Larne | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 19 |
A question about Linfield vs Larne?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Linfield vs Larne?
- The Footlab AI model makes Larne the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Linfield.
- Where and when is Linfield vs Larne played?
- Linfield vs Larne is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.