Liverpool vs Brighton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Anfield, Liverpool
The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Brighton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liverpool vs Brighton?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Liverpool (2,206) and Brighton (2,189).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Brighton have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Como(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tromso(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Liverpool win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Brighton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brighton 2-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Liverpool 3-0 Brighton | FA Cup |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Liverpool 2-0 Brighton | Premier League |
| May 19, 2025 | Brighton 3-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Liverpool 2-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Brighton 2-3 Liverpool | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Brighton vs Liverpool on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Liverpool score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Brighton score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Brighton | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liverpool sit 9th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Brighton sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Brighton?
- The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Brighton.
- Where and when is Liverpool vs Brighton played?
- Liverpool vs Brighton is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Anfield, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.