Manchester United vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
On Elo ratings, Manchester United has 2,291 points and Bournemouth 2,272.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 9M. Rashford
- 19B. Mbeumo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 37K. Mainoo
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 5H. Maguire
- 23L. Shaw
- 1S. Lammens
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 37Rayan
- 16M. Tavernier
- 8A. Scott
- 12T. Adams
- 19J. Kluivert
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 3A. Truffert
- 15A. Smith
- 1Đ. Petrović
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Bournemouth have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Manchester United win, 4 draws, 1 Bournemouth win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Manchester United 4-4 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Manchester United 4-1 Bournemouth | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Manchester United on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 12th in Premier League (5 points from 5 matches) and Bournemouth sit 17th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Bournemouth played?
- Manchester United vs Bournemouth is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.