Liverpool vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Anfield, Liverpool
The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1. If Liverpool wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liverpool vs Leeds?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Liverpool (2,291) and Leeds (2,235).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Liverpool vs Leeds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Liverpool
4-2-3-1- 67L. Koumas
- 7F. Wirtz
- 29B. Barcola
- 38R. Gravenberch
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 23Víctor Muñoz
- 33R. Araújo
- 5J. Jacquet
- 4V. van Dijk
- 6M. Kerkez
- 1Alisson Becker
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Leeds have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 6-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Liverpool wins, 2 draws, 2 Leeds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool 2-4 Leeds | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Liverpool 0-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Leeds 3-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Leeds 1-6 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Liverpool 1-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Liverpool 6-0 Leeds | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Liverpool score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liverpool sit 9th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Leeds sit 7th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
A question about Liverpool vs Leeds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Leeds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Liverpool vs Leeds played?
- Liverpool vs Leeds is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Anfield, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.