Leeds vs Fulham: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Fulham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Fulham?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Leeds (2,169) and Fulham (2,124).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Fulham have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farense(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leeds win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Fulham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Leeds 1-0 Fulham | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Fulham 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Fulham 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 28, 2023 | Fulham 2-0 Leeds | FA Cup |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Leeds 2-3 Fulham | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2021 | Fulham 0-0 Leeds | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fulham score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Fulham | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Fulham?
- The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Fulham.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Fulham played?
- Leeds vs Fulham is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.