Match

Liverpool vs Villarreal: prediction and stats

UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Anfield, Liverpool

LiverpoolVillarreal

The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Liverpool starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (2,310 vs 2,095).

78%14%8%
Liverpool winDrawVillarreal win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Liverpool vs Villarreal

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
  1. 9A. Isak
  1. 10A. Mac Allister
  2. 8D. Szoboszlai
  3. 7F. Wirtz
  4. 29B. Barcola
  5. 18C. Gakpo
  1. 6M. Kerkez
  2. 4V. van Dijk
  3. 5J. Jacquet
  4. 30J. Frimpong
  1. 1Alisson Becker

Known absences

  • R. AraújoOut · Muscle injury

Villarreal

4-4-2
  1. 22Ayoze Pérez
  2. 11Ilias Akhomach
  1. 17T. Buchanan
  2. 18P. Gueye
  3. 24N. Saliba
  4. 14Santi Comesaña
  1. 12Renato Veiga
  2. 6Pau Navarro
  3. 23Sergi Cardona
  4. 3A. Freeman
  1. 25P. Gulácsi

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:35 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Villarreal have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Liverpool
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Bournemouth(away)1-0Premier League
Sep 15, 2026Tottenham(home)3-1League Cup
Sep 12, 2026Fulham(home)0-0Premier League
Sep 9, 2026Atletico Madrid(home)2-1UEFA Champions League
Sep 4, 2026Ipswich(away)2-0Premier League
Villarreal
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Levante(home)3-1La Liga
Sep 17, 2026Malaga(away)3-1La Liga
Sep 14, 2026Real Betis(home)1-2La Liga
Sep 8, 2026Borussia Dortmund(away)2-3UEFA Champions League
Sep 5, 2026Deportivo La Coruna(home)2-3La Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Liverpool wins, 0 draws, 1 Villarreal win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2022Villarreal 2-3 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
Apr 27, 2022Liverpool 2-0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
May 5, 2016Liverpool 3-0 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
Apr 28, 2016Villarreal 1-0 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League

Last archived meeting: Villarreal vs Liverpool on May 3, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

Liverpool score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Liverpool1.71.4510/158/15
Villarreal1.71.5211/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Liverpool sit 13th in UEFA Champions League (3 points from 1 match) and Villarreal sit 21st (0 points from 1 match).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Liverpool1100213
21Villarreal1001230

A question about Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Villarreal.
Where and when is Liverpool vs Villarreal played?
Liverpool vs Villarreal is played on October 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Anfield, in the UEFA Champions League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Liverpool and Villarreal

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