Match

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats

UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC PortoPSV Eindhoven

The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for PSV Eindhoven. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,382 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

FC Porto starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (2,460 vs 2,205).

74%16%10%
FC Porto winDrawPSV Eindhoven win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC Porto

4-3-3
  1. 11Pepê Aquino
  2. 7William
  3. 19André Silva
  1. 22A. Varela
  2. 8Victor Mow Froholdt
  3. 16Hwang In-Beom
  1. 20Alberto Baio
  2. 4J. Kiwior
  3. 74Francisco Moura
  4. 5J. Bednarek
  1. 99Diogo Costa

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1
  1. 21S. Mijnans
  1. 20G. Til
  2. 24K. Sano
  3. 7R. van Bommel
  4. 17Mauro Júnior
  5. 5I. Perišić
  1. 4A. Obispo
  2. 8S. Dest
  3. 2L. Geertruida
  4. 18F. Kostić
  1. 32M. Kovář

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:04 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Porto
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Maritimo(away)2-1Primeira Liga
Oct 2, 2026Deportivo La Coruna(away)3-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Benfica(home)3-1Primeira Liga
Sep 12, 2026Casa Pia(away)4-1Primeira Liga
Sep 8, 2026Manchester City(home)0-2UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 9, 2026Heerenveen(home)2-0Eredivisie
Sep 20, 2026Twente(away)2-3Eredivisie
Sep 13, 2026Sparta Rotterdam(home)4-1Eredivisie
Sep 10, 2026Shakhtar Donetsk(home)1-1UEFA Champions League

How many goals should we expect?

FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Porto1.90.777/158/15
PSV Eindhoven2.71.6211/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Porto sit 29th in UEFA Champions League (0 points from 1 match) and PSV Eindhoven sit 25th (1 point from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
25PSV Eindhoven2011121
29FC Porto1001020

A question about FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for PSV Eindhoven.
Where and when is FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven played?
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven is played on October 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the UEFA Champions League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven

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