Livorno vs Grosseto: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Armando Picchi, Livorno
The Footlab model makes Livorno the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Grosseto. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Livorno vs Grosseto?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Livorno (1,824) and Grosseto (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Livorno have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Grosseto have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Torres(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Empoli(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(home) | 2-3 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Championship Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Livorno win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Grosseto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | Grosseto 0-0 Livorno | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Livorno 5-2 Grosseto | Serie D - Girone E |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Livorno 3-0 Grosseto | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| May 12, 2024 | Grosseto 3-2 Livorno | Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Grosseto 1-1 Livorno | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Livorno 1-1 Grosseto | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Livorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Grosseto score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Grosseto | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Livorno sit 5th in Serie C - Girone B (3 points from 1 matches) and Grosseto sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livorno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Grosseto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Livorno vs Grosseto?
- The Footlab model makes Livorno the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Grosseto.
- Where and when is Livorno vs Grosseto played?
- Livorno vs Grosseto is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Armando Picchi, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.