Vado vs Sambenedettese: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Ferruccio Chittolina, Valleggia
The Footlab model makes Vado the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Sambenedettese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vado vs Sambenedettese?
Vado starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vado have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Sambenedettese have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Inter U23(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 0-6 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 30, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Barletta(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Forli(home) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pescara(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(away) | 3-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Vado score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sambenedettese score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vado | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Sambenedettese | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vado sit 4th in Serie C - Girone B (3 points from 1 matches) and Sambenedettese sit 6th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Sambenedettese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vado vs Sambenedettese?
- The Footlab model makes Vado the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Sambenedettese.
- Where and when is Vado vs Sambenedettese played?
- Vado vs Sambenedettese is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ferruccio Chittolina, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.