Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Slavia Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
Arda Kardzhali starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slavia Sofia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Arda Kardzhali have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Slavia Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Arda Kardzhali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Slavia Sofia 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| May 23, 2024 | Arda Kardzhali 3-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arda Kardzhali vs Slavia Sofia on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slavia Sofia sit 9th in First League (6 points from 5 matches) and Arda Kardzhali sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Slavia Sofia.
- Where and when is Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali played?
- Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.