Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Segra Field, Leesburg, Virginia
The Footlab model makes Loudoun United the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Indy Eleven. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Loudoun United (1,677) and Indy Eleven (1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Loudoun United have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Indy Eleven have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New Mexico United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting JAX(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Loudoun United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Indy Eleven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Indy Eleven 0-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Indy Eleven 2-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Loudoun United 3-2 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Loudoun United 0-1 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Indy Eleven 1-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Indy Eleven 2-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Indy Eleven vs Loudoun United on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Loudoun United score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Indy Eleven score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun United | 0.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Indy Eleven | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Loudoun United sit 12th in USL Championship (9 points from 11 matches) and Indy Eleven sit 6th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 28 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 20 |
| 12 | Loudoun United | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven?
- The Footlab model makes Loudoun United the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Indy Eleven.
- Where and when is Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven played?
- Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven is played on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Segra Field, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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