Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for El Paso Locomotive. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
Louisville City starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,736).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Louisville City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; El Paso Locomotive have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 4-5 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Louisville City win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 El Paso Locomotive win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Mar 25, 2023 | Louisville City 0-3 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Jul 31, 2022 | El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: El Paso Locomotive vs Louisville City on Mar 16, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; El Paso Locomotive score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Louisville City sit 3rd in USL Championship (21 points from 14 matches) and El Paso Locomotive sit 7th (16 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
- The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for El Paso Locomotive.
- Where and when is Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive played?
- Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lynn Family Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots