Louisville City vs Loudoun United: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Loudoun United. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Louisville City vs Loudoun United?
Louisville City starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Louisville City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Loudoun United have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 4-5 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New Mexico United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Louisville City win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Loudoun United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Loudoun United 3-3 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Loudoun United 1-4 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| May 31, 2025 | Loudoun United 2-1 Louisville City | USL League One Cup |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Louisville City 2-1 Loudoun United | US Open Cup |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Louisville City 2-0 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Louisville City 1-0 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Loudoun United vs Louisville City on Apr 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Loudoun United score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Loudoun United | 0.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Louisville City sit 3rd in USL Championship (21 points from 14 matches) and Loudoun United sit 12th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Louisville City | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 20 |
| 12 | Loudoun United | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Louisville City vs Loudoun United?
- The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Loudoun United.
- Where and when is Louisville City vs Loudoun United played?
- Louisville City vs Loudoun United is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lynn Family Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots