Lugano II vs Basel II: prediction and stats
1. Liga PromotionGroup StageKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Centro sportivo Cornaredo B2, Lugano
The Footlab model makes Basel II the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Lugano II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugano II vs Basel II?
Basel II starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,706 vs 1,576).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugano II have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Basel II have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 2-5 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luzern II(home) | 4-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Young Boys II(away) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bulle(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 30, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Zürich II(home) | 2-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bellinzona(away) | 3-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grand-Saconnex(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(away) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 30, 2026 | Brühl(away) | 0-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lugano II win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Basel II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lugano II 4-2 Basel II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Basel II 3-2 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Basel II 0-2 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Lugano II 1-2 Basel II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 11, 2024 | Lugano II 2-4 Basel II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Basel II 3-0 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
Last archived meeting: Lugano II vs Basel II on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lugano II score 1.3 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Basel II score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Basel II | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugano II sit 17th in 1. Liga Promotion (3 points from 4 matches) and Basel II sit 15th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Basel II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| 17 | Lugano II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugano II vs Basel II?
- The Footlab model makes Basel II the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Lugano II.
- Where and when is Lugano II vs Basel II played?
- Lugano II vs Basel II is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Centro sportivo Cornaredo B2, in the 1. Liga Promotion.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.