Lugansk vs Astrakhan: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 21Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Astrakhan the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lugansk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugansk vs Astrakhan?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Lugansk (1,603) and Astrakhan (1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugansk have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Astrakhan have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pobeda(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(home) | 2-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Izberbash(away) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rostov II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevastopol(away) | 4-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shahter Taganrog(away) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FK Chayka 2(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Lugansk win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Astrakhan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Astrakhan 1-2 Lugansk | Second League - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lugansk score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Astrakhan score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugansk | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Astrakhan | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugansk sit 11th in Second League - Group 1 (20 points from 20 matches) and Astrakhan sit 10th (22 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Astrakhan | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
| 11 | Lugansk | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugansk vs Astrakhan?
- The Footlab model makes Astrakhan the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lugansk.
- Where and when is Lugansk vs Astrakhan played?
- Lugansk vs Astrakhan is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.