Lugo vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
On Elo ratings, Lugo has 1,902 points and Mérida AD 1,817.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lugo vs Mérida AD
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lugo
4-3-3- 17Chiqui
- 11M. Dauda
- 16A. Palma
- 20A. Ulloa
- 15P. Parrilla
- 6Kevin Presa
- 5Pol Moreno
- 19R. Lucero
- 4Ibaider Garriz
- 3Pere Haro
- 1Marc Martínez
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 21Raúl Beneit
- 19D. Sandoval
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 23Geovanny Almeida
- 8Martín Solar
- 2Alejandro Agustín
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 16Fito
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 1A. Csenterics
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CD Coria(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-5 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 3-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Lugo wins, 0 draws, 0 Mérida AD wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Mérida AD 0-2 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Lugo 1-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mérida AD | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugo sit 2nd in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (16 points from 6 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Lugo vs Mérida AD played?
- Lugo vs Mérida AD is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.