Lugo vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Lugo (1,884) and Mérida AD (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mérida AD have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Arenteiro(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Lugo win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Mérida AD win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Mérida AD 0-2 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Lugo 1-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugo sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (53 points from 38 matches) and Mérida AD sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 40 | 53 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Lugo vs Mérida AD played?
- Lugo vs Mérida AD is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.