Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol
The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina?
Ponferradina starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Racing Ferrol have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Ponferradina have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 2-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Osasuna II(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Racing Ferrol win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Ponferradina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Ponferradina 3-0 Racing Ferrol | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Racing Ferrol 2-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Ponferradina 0-2 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Ponferradina 2-1 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Racing Ferrol 1-2 Ponferradina | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Racing Ferrol score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Ferrol | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Ponferradina | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Racing Ferrol sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (49 points from 38 matches) and Ponferradina sit 4th (60 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 33 | 60 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 47 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina?
- The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Racing Ferrol.
- Where and when is Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina played?
- Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de A Malata, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.