Barakaldo vs Pontevedra: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Pontevedra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,956) and Pontevedra (1,986).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pontevedra have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estradense(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Barakaldo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Pontevedra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Pontevedra 2-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Barakaldo 0-1 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pontevedra vs Barakaldo on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pontevedra score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Pontevedra | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 7th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Pontevedra sit 6th (58 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 49 | 31 | 58 |
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?
- The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Pontevedra.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Pontevedra played?
- Barakaldo vs Pontevedra is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.