Barakaldo vs Pontevedra: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pontevedra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barakaldo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,985 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,924) and Pontevedra (1,953).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barakaldo vs Pontevedra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barakaldo
4-3-3- 27E. Mateos
- 19Ángel Troncho
- 11Carlos Mattheus
- 15I. Jimenez
- 21X. Fernandez
- 8Julen Huidobro
- 3Ander Zoilo
- 18Benat Gomez
- 17Pablo Trigueros
- 5Aritz Muguruza
- 13Gaizka Campos
Pontevedra
4-3-3- 22A. Comparada Gonzalez
- 11Iñaki Elejalde
- 9D. Mba
- 10Y. Pino
- 14L. Macias
- 6I. Ivorra
- 16A. Vidorreta
- 5A. Perez
- 20Rui Ferreira
- 15D. Alba
- 1Raúl Marqueta
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 04:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Pontevedra have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | UD Logroñés(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Barakaldo wins, 0 draws, 2 Pontevedra wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Pontevedra 2-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Barakaldo 0-1 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pontevedra vs Barakaldo on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pontevedra score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Pontevedra | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 15th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 8 matches) and Pontevedra sit 11th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
A question about Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pontevedra.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Pontevedra played?
- Barakaldo vs Pontevedra is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.