Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Campo Estrela, Évora
The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for SC Covilha. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha?
Lusitano Évora 1911 starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,936 vs 1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; SC Covilha have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | União Santarém(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 1, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lusitano Évora 1911 win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 SC Covilha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | SC Covilha 1-3 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | SC Covilha 0-2 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 28, 2025 | SC Covilha 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Lusitano Évora 1911 0-0 SC Covilha | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; SC Covilha score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| SC Covilha | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 4th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and SC Covilha sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | SC Covilha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha?
- The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for SC Covilha.
- Where and when is Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha played?
- Lusitano Évora 1911 vs SC Covilha is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Estrela, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.