Pacos Ferreira vs São João Ver: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira
The Footlab model makes São João Ver the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs São João Ver?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Pacos Ferreira (1,811) and São João Ver (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pacos Ferreira have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; São João Ver have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AVS(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; São João Ver score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| São João Ver | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pacos Ferreira sit 10th in Liga 3 (0 points from 3 matches) and São João Ver sit 9th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | São João Ver | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pacos Ferreira vs São João Ver?
- The Footlab model makes São João Ver the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Pacos Ferreira vs São João Ver played?
- Pacos Ferreira vs São João Ver is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.