Oliveirense vs Mafra: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Carlos Osório, Oliveira de Azeméis
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Oliveirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oliveirense vs Mafra?
Mafra starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,919 vs 1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oliveirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Mafra have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 3-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-5 | Segunda Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Oliveirense win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mafra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | Mafra 0-0 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Oliveirense 0-0 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Mafra 3-3 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Oliveirense 1-3 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Mafra 2-3 Oliveirense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Oliveirense 3-1 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Oliveirense score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveirense | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oliveirense sit 6th in Liga 3 (2 points from 2 matches) and Mafra sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Oliveirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oliveirense vs Mafra?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Oliveirense.
- Where and when is Oliveirense vs Mafra played?
- Oliveirense vs Mafra is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Carlos Osório, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.