Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Union St. Gilloise. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lyon wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Lyon (2,184) and Union St. Gilloise (2,273).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 11Keito Nakamura
- 99N. Nartey
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 20F. Bacher
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Union St. Gilloise
3-1-4-2- 9M. Biondic
- 38R. Mofokeng
- 27L. Patris
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
- 23B. Zeneli
- 6K. Van de Perre
- 28D. Olaru
- 29M. Sylla
- 55N. Havenaar
- 4N. Chibani
- 12H. Koffi
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:03 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lyon have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nice(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nijlen(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 1-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Plzen(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
How many goals should we expect?
Lyon score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lyon sit 8th in UEFA Europa League (6 points from 2 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 12th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
A question about Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Union St. Gilloise.
- Where and when is Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- Lyon vs Union St. Gilloise is played on December 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.