Marseille vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Marseille (2,086) and Celta Vigo (2,084).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marseille vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 11N. Maupay
- 8H. Abdelli
- 7A. Gomes
- 14Igor Paixão
- 48K. Abdallah
- 6T. Nnadi
- 33Emerson
- 22T. Weah
- 21N. Aguerd
- 18B. Meité
- 12J. de Lange
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 19W. Swedberg
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 5Sergio Carreira
- 14Aleix Febas
- 3Marcos Alonso
- 18Yoel Lago
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Celta Vigo have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 32nd in UEFA Europa League (0 points from 2 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 28th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
A question about Marseille vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Celta Vigo played?
- Marseille vs Celta Vigo is played on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.