Maardu vs Nõmme Kalju II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Nõmme Kalju II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Maardu starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (1,411 vs 1,169).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nõmme Kalju II have 1, 3 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(home) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme United II(away) | 0-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Maardu win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Nõmme Kalju II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 1-4 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Maardu 2-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 3-2 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-4 Maardu | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 6, 2018 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-1 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 14, 2018 | Maardu 10-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme Kalju II score 1.1 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Nõmme Kalju II | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 8th in Esiliiga A (16 points from 15 matches) and Nõmme Kalju II sit 7th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 7 | Nõmme Kalju II | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 35 | 17 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 67 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Nõmme Kalju II?
- The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Nõmme Kalju II.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Nõmme Kalju II played?
- Maardu vs Nõmme Kalju II is played on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.