Tartu Welco vs Elva: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Elva. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Elva?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Tartu Welco (1,449) and Elva (1,384).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Welco have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Elva have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tartu Welco win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Elva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva 2-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Elva 0-2 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Tartu Welco 3-3 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Tartu Welco 3-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Elva 1-2 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Tartu Welco 2-5 Elva | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Welco sit 1st in Esiliiga A (38 points from 16 matches) and Elva sit 4th (23 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Welco vs Elva?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Elva.
- Where and when is Tartu Welco vs Elva played?
- Tartu Welco vs Elva is played on October 9, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.