Macarthur vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on January 25, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Macarthur (1,809) and Adelaide United (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Macarthur win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United 3-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-5 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Macarthur 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Adelaide United 1-2 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Adelaide United vs Macarthur on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Adelaide United played?
- Macarthur vs Adelaide United is played on January 25, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.