Melbourne Victory vs Sydney: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on January 26, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sydney. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Sydney?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Melbourne Victory (1,935) and Sydney (1,902).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Sydney
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-4-2- 44C. Nduka
- 9H. Sawyer
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Sydney
4-2-3-1- 9O. Sunday
- 20T. Quintal
- 14T. Sekine
- 15J. Hollman
- 36R. Youlley
- 35A. Toure
- 23R. Grant
- 17B. Garuccio
- 4J. Courtney-Perkins
- 41A. Popovic
- 12Harrison Devenish-Meares
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Sydney have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Melbourne Victory wins, 1 draw, 2 Sydney wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney 0-2 Melbourne Victory | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Sydney 2-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-0 Sydney | A-League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Sydney 3-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Sydney | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Sydney vs Melbourne Victory on Sep 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sydney score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sydney | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 4th in A-League (40 points from 26 matches) and Sydney sit 5th (39 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Sydney?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Sydney?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sydney.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Sydney played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Sydney is played on January 26, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.