Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Footlab model makes Brisbane Roar the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Brisbane Roar (1,685) and Wellington Phoenix (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brisbane Roar have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Brisbane Roar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Brisbane Roar 0-3 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| May 14, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar | Australia Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brisbane Roar score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brisbane Roar sit 11th in A-League (26 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Brisbane Roar the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix is played on January 23, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at Suncorp Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.