Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,930 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (2,274 vs 2,082).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 15J. David
- 11A. Lookman
- 20G. Simeone
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 17D. Hancko
- 21C. Romero
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 19W. Swedberg
- 24C. Driouech
- 6I. Moriba
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 5Sergio Carreira
- 17Javi Rueda
- 18Yoel Lago
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 07:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Celta Vigo have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico Madrid wins, 2 draws, 1 Celta Vigo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 12, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Celta Vigo 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga (22 points from 9 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 8th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.