Manchester City vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 35Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Liverpool. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 5,794 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Liverpool?
On Elo ratings, Manchester City has 2,270 points and Liverpool 2,171.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Liverpool
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 10R. Cherki
- 45A. Khusanov
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 24J. Gvardiol
- 1G. Donnarumma
Liverpool
4-2-3-1- 9A. Isak
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 29B. Barcola
- 18C. Gakpo
- 7F. Wirtz
- 8D. Szoboszlai
- 4V. van Dijk
- 5J. Jacquet
- 33R. Araújo
- 6M. Kerkez
- 1Alisson Becker
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 12:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Liverpool have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester City wins, 0 draws, 2 Liverpool wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Manchester City 4-0 Liverpool | FA Cup |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Manchester City 3-0 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Manchester City 0-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Liverpool 2-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Liverpool vs Manchester City on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Liverpool | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 3rd in Premier League (21 points from 10 matches) and Liverpool sit 4th (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
A question about Manchester City vs Liverpool?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Liverpool.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Liverpool played?
- Manchester City vs Liverpool is played on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.