Leeds vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (2,416 vs 2,208).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leeds vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 7B. Saka
- 20N. Madueke
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 33R. Calafiori
- 4B. White
- 1David Raya
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Leeds wins, 0 draws, 6 Arsenal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Leeds 0-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Arsenal 5-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Arsenal 4-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Leeds 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 8, 2022 | Arsenal 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 7th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
A question about Leeds vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Arsenal played?
- Leeds vs Arsenal is played on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.