Tottenham vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Tottenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tottenham vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Tottenham (2,113) and Chelsea (2,160).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tottenham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Chelsea have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tottenham win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Chelsea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea 1-2 Tottenham | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 19, 2026 | Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Tottenham 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Tottenham 3-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 2, 2024 | Chelsea 2-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tottenham score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tottenham sit 18th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Chelsea sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Tottenham.
- Where and when is Tottenham vs Chelsea played?
- Tottenham vs Chelsea is played on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.