Manfredonia vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Miramare, Manfredonia
The Footlab model makes Manfredonia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manfredonia vs Virtus Francavilla?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Manfredonia (1,681) and Virtus Francavilla (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manfredonia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Real Acerrana(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Nardò(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Heraclea(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pompei(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Manfredonia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Virtus Francavilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla 2-0 Manfredonia | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Manfredonia 2-5 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Manfredonia 0-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Virtus Francavilla 3-0 Manfredonia | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Manfredonia on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manfredonia score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus Francavilla score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manfredonia | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manfredonia sit 12th in Serie D - Girone H (43 points from 34 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 48 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 39 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manfredonia vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab model makes Manfredonia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Manfredonia vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Manfredonia vs Virtus Francavilla is played on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Miramare, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.